- If the stock market is in an up trend trade primarily on the long side and in a down trend short rallies primarily. The best way to lose money in the stock market is to fight the prevailing trend.
- Do not trade without a detailed trading plan covering entries, exits, position sizing, maximum positions at one time, risk management, and rules that will apply to your own trading psychology.
- Do not make trades based on your own emotions of fear and greed instead seek to capitalize on trading the fear and greed of other traders.
- Find ways to quantify and back test price support and resistance levels and then trade in the direction of the trend in your time frame.
- Enter trades where your potential for upside profit is much greater than your risk of loss. Be prepared to exit a losing trade if the price goes to a level that shows you that you are probably wrong. Be prepared to let a winner run as far as it will go with a trailing stop.
- Position size and set stop losses so if you are wrong you will lose no more than 1% of your total trading capital. This will change a string of losses from a blow up to a small draw down and your wins can be as big as the trend allows.
- Limit your total risk exposure so that you can never lose more than 3% at one time if all your open trades go against you at the same time.
- Focus your trading on a small watch list of trading vehicles that you are very knowledgeable about and understand their historical price history in detail.
- Master a few entries and once you have proven their robustness in live trading add new entry signals. Be very picky about your entries and take your time developing your trading plan entries and exits before trading real money.
- Quick trying to predict and learn how to react to present price action.
- Stop trading based on your egos need to be proven right and trade only to make money.
- All the work for trading should be completed before the market opens, when the market is open we should only be executing trade signals.
Sunday, 3 May 2015
12 Simple Trading Principles That Lead to Profitability
Succeeding at Trading by Not Trading
In his recent research report, Peter Brandt offered a keen observation: "Profitability comes from a trade finding you, not in you finding a trade. The best trades are the ones you wait for, not the ones you find."
So it is with discretionary trading: we look at markets; we look at economic developments; we look at monetary trends; we study various indicators of market behavior--and all of that is preparation.
As Peter points out, at any juncture we can take a chart or piece of data and find a trade in it. If we are in a mindset where we want to trade--and need to trade--we can find trades to do.
And we don't make money.
When we are patient and prepare and prepare and prepare, eventually a pattern presents itself to us. All the analysis falls into place with a keen synthesis. We might conceptualize the pattern in statistical terms, chart-based terms, macroeconomic terms, or some other terms. There are many languages we can speak to capture the patterns in complex phenomena.
The reason patience is important to trading is that it allows us the time and space to synthesize. We can never get to the point of trusting our gut if our heads are cluttered with what we want to do next. It is when we stop doing that the things worth doing come to us.
Saturday, 2 May 2015
6 Investing Lessons From The Richest Man In The World- Warren Buffett
#1: “If you buy things you don’t need, you will soon sell things you need.”
You can make more money not only by investing or taking up a second job, but also by resisting the temptation to go out and just splurge. As the saying goes – a penny saved is a penny earned.
Key Takeaway: To be a successful investor, you need to use due diligence. Spending wisely is not about being miserly, but about being smart. Invest in assets that give you good returns over the long term- one that helps you secure your financial future.
#2: “Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.”
Most of us know this- the money we pay for something and the value we get out of it, most of the time, does not have a correlation. You could possibly buy a posh apartment for 1 crore rupees. But staying in the apartment does not guarantee a high quality of life- does it?
When it comes to investing, especially the stock markets, the price of a stock is mostly governed by market sentiments and not necessarily by the profitability or value of the company itself. Warren buffet suggests to buy stocks when the price you have to pay for the stock is less than the intrinsic value of it. He says, “Whether we’re talking about socks or stocks, I like buying quality merchandise when it is marked down.”
Key takeaway: Instead of trying to time the market and extract every rupee profit you can possibly get out of your investment, invest in assets that will generate inflation-beating long term returns and hold on it for a long time (In buffet terms, forever).
#3: “It’s far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price.”
Warren Buffet recommends investing in undervalued stock with great potential and holding on to them forever. In-line with this philosophy (which undoubtedly worked so well, and still continues to work), buying shares of a wonderful company at a fair price is much better than buying a mediocre company at a cheap/bargain price.
Buffet notes that over the long term, mediocre companies gives much lesser returns compared to wonderful companies, so much so that the bargain price for which you bought the mediocre company stock does not seem like a bargain anymore.
Key takeaway: Don’t try and time the market or buy into NFO mutual funds because the NAV is low. Invest whenever you have the money and hold it for as long as possible.
#4: Be loss-averse
Majority of investor’s measure performance solely based on return. Buffett advices that you should not strive to make every dollar a potential profit which involves too much risk. Instead you should be loss-averse. Preserving your capital should be your top goal. By avoiding losses you’ll naturally be inclined towards investments with assured returns.
As Warren Buffet puts it, “Rule #1, never lose money. Rule #2, never forget Rule #1.”
The takeaway: While Buffet talks about safety of capital, he’s referring to stock investing where you don’t become greedy and go after too-good-to-be-true stocks. Instead, you focus on stocks that are undervalued and are of companies that you understand and has long-term potential.
Many investors misunderstand this as a recommendation for investing only in Bank FDs or equivalent assets which are mostly considered safe. Investing in Bank FDs is almost always guaranteed to be a losing proposition over the long term since after-tax, the returns you get annualized are below inflation rate.
#5: Be tax savvy
Like all billionaires, Buffett too is tax savvy.
Be knowledgeable about tax laws and use them to your advantage. Before you invest, make sure you understand the tax implications of your investment.
For e.g. while investing in Bank FDs might give you 9% returns, the interest is actually taxable as per your tax-bracket. The real return, if you are in the 30% tax-bracket, will fall to just a little above 6%. Now, that’s below inflation rate and you are effectively losing money the longer you invest in it.
The takeaway: Understand the tax implications of your investment fully before making a choice.
#6: Limit what you borrow
More is not always good- case in point, loans and credit card debt.
With daily offers from ecommerce companies, it might be tempting to buy that latest mobile phone on an EM. Considering the fact that the phone you bought for EMI (plus the processing fee which is in-directly the interest you pay for the EMI facility), and it loses its value over time (most cases, the moment you buy it), it is best if you limit your borrowing.
The takeaway: Borrow only when it’s absolutely necessary. When borrowing, make sure you understand all the fees associated with it. Sometimes, the real cost of bowing money will be hidden as miscellaneous charges like processing fee.
Investing is easier than you think. Take control of your money and start investing like a professional.
Moving Average Answer Key
Moving averages allow traders the ability to quantify trends and act as signals for entries, exits, and trailing stops. They can become support and resistance, and give the trader levels to trade around. Below are examples of the specific moving averages with time frames.
- 5 Day EMA: Measures the short term time frame. This is support in the strongest up trends. This line can only be used in low volatility trends.
- 10 day EMA: “The 10 day exponential moving average (EMA) is my favorite indicator to determine the major trend. I call this ‘red light, green light’ because it is imperative in trading to remain on the correct side of a moving average to give yourself the best probability of success. When you are trading above the 10 day, you have the green light, and you should be thinking buy. Conversely, trading below the average is a red light. The market is in a negative mode, and you should be thinking sell.” – Marty Schwartz
- 21 day EMA: This is the intermediate term moving average. It is generally the last line of support in a volatile up trend.
- 50 day SMA: This is the line that strong leading stocks typically pull back to. This is usually the support level for strong up trends.
- 100 day SMA: This is the line that provides the support between the 50 day and the 200 day. If it does not hold as support, the 200 day generally is the next stop.
- 200 day SMA: Bulls like to buy dips above the 200-day moving average, while bears sell rallies short below it. Bears usually win and sell into rallies below this line as the 200 day becomes resistance, and bulls buy into deep pullbacks to the 200 day when the price is above it. This line is one of the biggest signals in the market telling you which side to be on. Bull above, Bear below. Bad things happen to stocks and markets when this line is lost.
Friday, 1 May 2015
The 7 Expensive Bad Habits of New Traders
Trading with no stop losses. You can’t control your profits but you can control and limit your losses with a planned exit. Not having an exit plan can be very expensive when a trend takes off against you and you start hoping instead of just cutting your losses and moving on.
Your opinion can be very expensive. Trading your opinion against all other market participants can be very expensive. The market goes where it wants and when you disagree with where it is going it will cost you.
“Egos are expensive things.” – Ray C. Freeman. Inflated egos cause a trader’s #1 priority to be proving they are right and refusing to admit when they are wrong. It is very expensive for ego gratification to be above making money.
Trading off predictions can cost a lot of money when they are wrong. There is more to be made by reacting to what the market is doing instead of predicting what you think it will do later.
Stubbornness causes small losses to become big losses. It causes a trader to make the same mistake over and over becasue they do not assimilate feedback they keep doing the same thing over and over and getting the same results.
Not having an exit strategy for a winning trade can be very expensive, it is possible to ride a big winning trade into being a big loser if you do not have a set way to take profits. Trailing stops and targets can put the profits in the bank.
Trading too big of position sizes for your account size can be very costly because no manner how good your winning trades are you are set up to give back the profits with a few big losing trades.
50 Trading Rules from Linda Raschke
Ms. Raschke was recognized in Jack Schwager’s critically acclaimed book, The New Market Wizards.
Linda Bradford Raschke – 50 Time Tested Classic Stock Trading Rules.
Linda Bradford Raschke – 50 Time Tested Classic Stock Trading Rules.
- Plan your trades. Trade your plan.
- Keep records of your trading results.
- Keep a positive attitude, no matter how much you lose.
- Don’t take the market home.
- Continually set higher trading goals.
- Successful traders buy into bad news and sell into good news.
- Successful traders are not afraid to buy high and sell low.
- Successful traders have a well-scheduled planned time for studying the markets.
- Successful traders isolate themselves from the opinions of others.
- Continually strive for patience, perseverance, determination, and rational action.
- Limit your losses – use stops!
- Never cancel a stop loss order after you have placed it!
- Place the stop at the time you make your trade.
- Never get into the market because you are anxious because of waiting.
- Avoid getting in or out of the market too often.
- Losses make the trader studious – not profits. Take advantage of every loss to improve your knowledge of market action.
- The most difficult task in speculation is not prediction but self-control. Successful trading is difficult and frustrating. You are the most important element in the equation for success.
- Always discipline yourself by following a pre-determined set of rules.
- Remember that a bear market will give back in one month what a bull market has taken three months to build.
- Don’t ever allow a big winning trade to turn into a loser. Stop yourself out if the market moves against you 20% from your peak profit point.
- You must have a program, you must know your program, and you must follow your program.
- Expect and accept losses gracefully. Those who brood over losses always miss the next opportunity, which more than likely will be profitable.
- Split your profits right down the middle and never risk more than 50% of them again in the market.
- The key to successful trading is knowing yourself and your stress point.
- The difference between winners and losers isn’t so much native ability as it is discipline exercised in avoiding mistakes.
- In trading as in fencing there are the quick and the dead.
- Speech may be silver but silence is golden. Traders with the golden touch do not talk about their success.
- Dream big dreams and think tall. Very few people set goals too high. A man becomes what he thinks about all day long.
- Accept failure as a step towards victory.
- Have you taken a loss? Forget it quickly. Have you taken a profit? Forget it even quicker! Don’t let ego and greed inhibit clear thinking and hard work.
- One cannot do anything about yesterday. When one door closes, another door opens. The greater opportunity always lies through the open door.
- The deepest secret for the trader is to subordinate his will to the will of the market. The market is truth as it reflects all forces that bear upon it. As long as he recognizes this he is safe. When he ignores this, he is lost and doomed.
- It’s much easier to put on a trade than to take it off.
- If a market doesn’t do what you think it should do, get out.
- Beware of large positions that can control your emotions. Don’t be overly aggressive with the market. Treat it gently by allowing your equity to grow steadily rather than in bursts.
- Never add to a losing position.
- Beware of trying to pick tops or bottoms.
- You must believe in yourself and your judgement if you expect to make a living at this game.
- In a narrow market there is no sense in trying to anticipate what the next big movement is going to be – up or down.
- A loss never bothers me after I take it. I forget it overnight. But being wrong and not taking the loss – that is what does the damage to the pocket book and to the soul.
- Never volunteer advice and never brag of your winnings.
- Of all speculative blunders, there are few greater than selling what shows a profit and keeping what shows a loss.
- Standing aside is a position.
- It is better to be more interested in the market’s reaction to new information than in the piece of news itself.
- If you don’t know who you are, the markets are an expensive place to find out.
- In the world of money, which is a world shaped by human behavior, nobody has the foggiest notion of what will happen in the future. Mark that word – Nobody! Thus the successful trader does not base moves on what supposedly will happen but reacts instead to what does happen.
- Except in unusual circumstances, get in the habit of taking your profit too soon. Don’t torment yourself if a trade continues winning without you. Chances are it won’t continue long. If it does, console yourself by thinking of all the times when liquidating early reserved gains that you would have otherwise lost.
- When the ship starts to sink, don’t pray – jump!
- Lose your opinion – not your money.
- Assimilate into your very bones a set of trading rules that works for you.
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